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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to HOU 25, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model