4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Monday 2016-11-21 · 20:30 Azteca Stadium, Mexico City MX ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

HOU
39.8%
OAK
60.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • HOU offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV on 7 more days rest than HOU
  • Brock Osweiler (HOU): -0.081 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
OAK 23
Projected margin: OAK by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

HOU

Alfred Blue RB Out Calf
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Illness
Jaelen Strong WR Out Ankle
Jay Prosch RB Questionable Hamstring
Will Fuller WR Questionable Knee
Vince Wilfork DT Questionable Groin

OAK

Amari Cooper WR Questionable Back
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Stacy McGee DT Questionable Ankle
Latavius Murray RB Questionable Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Sean Smith CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
OAK 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:37 FG HOU (8:37) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – OAK 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD LV (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 30-J.Richard for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – OAK 6
  • Q2 12:51 FG LV (12:51) 11-S.Janikowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. HOU 3 – OAK 10
  • Q2 08:04 TD HOU (8:04) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 13-B.Miller for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – OAK 10
  • Q3 08:37 TD HOU (8:37) 76-D.Brown reported in as eligible. 26-L.Miller left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – OAK 10
  • Q3 02:42 FG LV (2:42) 11-S.Janikowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. HOU 17 – OAK 13
  • Q4 10:59 FG HOU (10:59) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 20 – OAK 13
  • Q4 10:57 TD LV (10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 49-J.Olawale for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – OAK 19
  • Q4 04:51 TD LV (4:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-A.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – OAK 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (8:37) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:24) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to HOU 28, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 37 for 9 yards (56-D.Bates; 20-N.Allen).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to LV 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 38-T.Carrie to LV 21 for 12 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.02 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (12:51) 11-S.Janikowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:31) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to HOU 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-B.Miller to HOU 11 for 1 yard (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:35) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:47) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to HOU 25, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 47%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree (24-J.Joseph).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (14:21) 45-J.Prosch up the middle to HOU 46 for 2 yards (90-D.Williams).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:42) 11-S.Janikowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (10:59) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (6:31) 33-A.Hunt left guard to LV 15 for no gain (53-M.Smith). Officials to measure for 1st down - Short. Houston challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 06:15.)

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to LV 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 38-T.Carrie to LV 20 for 15 yards (20-D.Jones).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 53%

    (1:04) 28-L.Murray left tackle to HOU 33 for 6 yards (43-C.Moore). PENALTY on HOU-75-V.Wilfork, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 33.