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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 14

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model