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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 56

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to LV 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 38-T.Carrie to LV 20 for 15 yards (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -1.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model