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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to HOU 28, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 37 for 9 yards (56-D.Bates; 20-N.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model