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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to JAX 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model