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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

JAX
33.2%
DET
66.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.197 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.057 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than JAX
  • DET offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

JAX

Chris Smith DE Out Eye
Dan Skuta LB Questionable Back
Neal Sterling TE Questionable Foot
Bryan Walters WR Questionable Concussion

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Theo Riddick RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 19
–
DET 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:39 FG JAX (1:39) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 11:31 TD DET (11:31) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DET 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DET 6
  • Q2 02:49 TD JAX (2:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-H.Ngata]. JAX 9 – DET 6
  • Q2 00:23 FG DET (:23) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. JAX 9 – DET 9
  • Q3 14:16 TD DET (14:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 11-M.Lee INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Bush (24-N.Lawson) at JAX 39. 31-R.Bush for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – DET 15
  • Q3 09:25 FG JAX (9:25) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 12 – DET 16
  • Q3 02:16 TD JAX (2:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 11-M.Lee for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 18 – DET 16
  • Q4 10:08 TD DET (10:08) 85-E.Ebron right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – DET 22
  • Q4 00:26 FG DET (:26) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Illegal Formation, declined. JAX 19 – DET 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:29) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 42%

    (6:29) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:40) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 42, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%

    (2:45) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DET 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, touched at DET 12, RECOVERED by JAX-83-B.Koyack at DET 11. 83-B.Koyack to DET 11 for no gain (52-A.Williams).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (1:39) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to JAX 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 34.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:34) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to JAX 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:31) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DET 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:33) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to DET 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-30-C.Grant.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:17) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to JAX 43, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-R.Greene to JAX 46 for 3 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (:23) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 69%

    (9:25) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:15) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:32) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DET 21, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:27) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (:26) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Illegal Formation, declined.