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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.87 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP