Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 59

Detroit Lions 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

(7:15) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.68 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model