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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 61

Detroit Lions 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.77 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model