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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DET 21, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP