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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 25

Detroit Lions 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(:26) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model