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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model