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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model