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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to JAX 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model