Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New England Patriots 13

(12:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NE 29, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model