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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

NE
72.3%
SF
27.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.079 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.215 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 27
–
SF 19
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NE

Rob Gronkowski TE Out Chest
Chris Hogan WR Out Back
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot

SF

Aaron Lynch LB Out Ankle
Rashard Robinson CB Questionable Knee
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 30
–
SF 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 TD NE (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0-yds YAC NE 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 02:45 FG SF (2:45) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NE 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 12-yds YAC NE 12 – SF 3
  • Q2 05:03 TD SF (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 89-V.McDonald for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2-yds YAC NE 13 – SF 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0-yds YAC NE 19 – SF 10
  • Q4 10:16 TD NE (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 19-M.Mitchell for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-A.Brooks]. 35-yds YAC NE 26 – SF 10
  • Q4 06:16 FG NE (6:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 30 – SF 10
  • Q4 02:10 TD SF (2:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 24-S.Draughn for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 6-yds YAC NE 30 – SF 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (2:45) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NE 29, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (9:21) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to SF 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to NE 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-D.Amendola MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 27. 80-D.Amendola to NE 27 for no gain (20-M.Cromartie).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 47%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White to SF 16 for 25 yards (33-R.Robinson). 19-yds YAC

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (13:35) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to SF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at SF 20.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (10:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to NE 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-D.Amendola to NE 29 for 17 yards (56-S.Skov). PENALTY on NE-43-N.Ebner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 28.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (7:07) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (4:24) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NE 30, Center-86-K.Nelson. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 30 for no gain (56-S.Skov).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:11) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to SF 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-J.Kerley to SF 30 for 9 yards (31-J.Jones; 43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:08) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NE 30, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 24-Cy.Jones.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to NE 30, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 24-Cy.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (6:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.