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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 46

New England Patriots 13 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to SF 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model