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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 70

New England Patriots 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to SF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.43 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP