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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to NE 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-D.Amendola to NE 29 for 17 yards (56-S.Skov). PENALTY on NE-43-N.Ebner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 28.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP