4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 47

New England Patriots 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model