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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NE 30, Center-86-K.Nelson. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 30 for no gain (56-S.Skov).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model