Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 69

New England Patriots 20 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(13:11) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to SF 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-J.Kerley to SF 30 for 9 yards (31-J.Jones; 43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model