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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model