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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP