4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PHI
38.5%
SEA
61.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PHI

Terrence Brooks S Out Hamstring
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Back

SEA

Michael Bennett DE Out Knee
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 15
–
SEA 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:14 TD SEA (11:14) 22-C.Prosise right guard for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 14:19 TD PHI (14:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – SEA 6
  • Q2 08:30 TD SEA (8:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 88-J.Graham for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – SEA 12
  • Q2 03:50 FG SEA (3:50) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. PHI 7 – SEA 16
  • Q3 07:38 TD SEA (7:38) (Shotgun) 89-D.Baldwin pass short left to 3-R.Wilson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – SEA 22
  • Q4 13:37 FG SEA (13:37) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. PHI 7 – SEA 26
  • Q4 03:46 TD PHI (3:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 18-D.Green-Beckham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – SEA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:54) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to PHI 23, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:58) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 18 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:39) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:02) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to PHI 32, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-33-K.McCray.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:38) 8-D.Jones punts 39 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (3:50) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:53) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:45) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to PHI 23, Center-48-N.Frese. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 38 for 15 yards (48-N.Frese; 52-B.Coyle).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:13) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 1 yard (56-B.Braman).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-27-N.Thorpe.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:13) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 11 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill; 28-W.Smallwood).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to PHI 18, Center-48-N.Frese. 34-K.Barner to PHI 18 for no gain (21-D.Elliott; 27-N.Thorpe). PENALTY on PHI-47-T.Burton, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at PHI 18.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 20 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:27) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 40, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-T.Lockett to PHI 41 for 19 yards (28-W.Smallwood).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (13:37) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 48%

    (10:42) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz (50-K.Wright).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%

    (7:19) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (4:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 18-D.Green-Beckham to SEA 9 for 8 yards (21-D.Elliott).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (3:28) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to PHI 16, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-86-B.Williams.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 26%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Matthews [56-C.Avril].