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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to PHI 23, Center-48-N.Frese. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 38 for 15 yards (48-N.Frese; 52-B.Coyle).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model