Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(10:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-27-N.Thorpe.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model