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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 11 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill; 28-W.Smallwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP