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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to PHI 18, Center-48-N.Frese. 34-K.Barner to PHI 18 for no gain (21-D.Elliott; 27-N.Thorpe). PENALTY on PHI-47-T.Burton, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at PHI 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP