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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 40, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-T.Lockett to PHI 41 for 19 yards (28-W.Smallwood).

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model