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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model