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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz (50-K.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model