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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model