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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 18-D.Green-Beckham to SEA 9 for 8 yards (21-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.93 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model