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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.26 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model