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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to PHI 32, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-33-K.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model