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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-82-B.Myers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model