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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TB
39.6%
KC
60.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 20
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TB

Kevin Pamphile T Out Concussion
Jacquizz Rodgers RB Out Foot
Evan Smith C Out Knee
Joe Hawley C Questionable Knee
Russell Shepard WR Questionable Hip
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Ankle

KC

Jeremy Maclin WR Out Groin
Jaye Howard DE Doubtful Hip
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Hip
Dontari Poe DT Questionable Knee
James Winchester LS Questionable Not Injury Related
Phillip Gaines CB Questionable Neck
Justin Houston LB Questionable Knee
Derrick Johnson LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 19
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 FG KC (7:10) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. TB 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 09:49 FG TB (9:49) 19-R.Aguayo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – KC 3
  • Q2 04:22 FG TB (4:22) 19-R.Aguayo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – KC 3
  • Q2 01:20 TD KC (1:20) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – KC 9
  • Q2 00:11 FG TB (:11) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 9 – KC 10
  • Q3 10:04 FG TB (10:04) 19-R.Aguayo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 12 – KC 10
  • Q4 06:30 TD TB (6:30) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 45-A.Cross for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 18 – KC 10
  • Q4 02:29 TD KC (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 12-A.Wilson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – KC 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (7:10) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (14:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to TB 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-A.Humphries to TB 26 for 13 yards (12-A.Wilson).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (9:49) 19-R.Aguayo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to TB 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (4:22) 19-R.Aguayo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (10:04) 19-R.Aguayo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 58%

    (6:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to TB 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-D.Alexander.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 15 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 58%

    (15:00) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-82-B.Myers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 22%

    (:22) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to KC 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 27 for 20 yards (37-K.Tandy).