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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:22) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to KC 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 27 for 20 yards (37-K.Tandy).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model