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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to TB 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-A.Humphries to TB 26 for 13 yards (12-A.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP