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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to IND 36, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.08 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP