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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

TEN
55.9%
IND
44.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND on 7 more days rest than TEN
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 24
–
IND 23
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TEN

No players on the report.

IND

Kendall Langford DE Out Knee
Patrick Robinson CB Doubtful Groin
Arthur Jones DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
IND 24

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:42 TD IND (8:42) (Run formation) 33-R.Turbin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 02:37 TD IND (2:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-A.Williamson]. TEN 0 – IND 13
  • Q2 10:43 TD IND (10:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 20
  • Q2 00:26 TD TEN (:26) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 29-D.Murray for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 21
  • Q3 06:43 TD TEN (6:43) (Run formation) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 19-T.Sharpe for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 21
  • Q4 12:19 FG TEN (12:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 17 – IND 21
  • Q4 10:55 FG IND (10:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TEN 17 – IND 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (13:45) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to IND 36, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:41) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to IND 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 43 for 18 yards (45-J.Fowler). PENALTY on IND-86-E.Swoope, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 35.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:33) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (10:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (2:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:29) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to TEN 35, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:00) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-K.Byard. 47-A.Blake up the middle to TEN 41 for -2 yards (26-C.Geathers; 91-H.Ridgeway).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 52%

    (11:36) 1-P.McAfee punts 40 yards to TEN 1, Center-45-M.Overton. 47-A.Blake to TEN 2 for 1 yard (53-E.Jackson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani. PENALTY on TEN-97-K.Klug, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 12.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 79%

    (12:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 16 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 75%

    (10:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 19 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:03) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to IND 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 39 for 2 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 75%

    (4:22) (Shotgun) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 83-H.Douglas to IND 28 for 3 yards (30-R.Melvin).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

    (2:45) (Run formation) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 29-D.Murray left end to IND 19 for no gain (26-C.Geathers).