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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 1-P.McAfee punts 40 yards to TEN 1, Center-45-M.Overton. 47-A.Blake to TEN 2 for 1 yard (53-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model