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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani. PENALTY on TEN-97-K.Klug, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 12.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.67 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP