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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Shotgun) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 83-H.Douglas to IND 28 for 3 yards (30-R.Melvin).

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model