Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(6:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to LV 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to LV 33 for 5 yards (22-M.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model