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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CAR
41.4%
OAK
58.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR on 4 more days rest than LV
  • LV offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CAR

Mario Addison DE Out Foot
Ryan Kalil C Out Shoulder
Luke Kuechly LB Out Concussion
Gino Gradkowski C Questionable Knee
Colin Jones S Questionable Concussion
A.J. Klein LB Questionable Concussion
Tre Boston S Questionable Ankle
Leonard Johnson CB Questionable Chest

OAK

Shilique Calhoun LB Out Knee
David Amerson CB Questionable Knee
Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Stacy McGee DT Questionable Ankle
Keith McGill S Questionable Abdomen
Latavius Murray RB Questionable Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Perry Riley LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 32
–
OAK 35

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:54 TD LV (4:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-27-R.McClain was injured during the play. CAR 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 03:16 TD CAR (3:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 12:52 TD LV (12:52) 28-L.Murray left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – OAK 13
  • Q2 06:53 FG LV (6:53) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. CAR 7 – OAK 17
  • Q2 01:04 TD LV (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 43-F.Whittaker INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack at CAR 6. 52-K.Mack for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-70-T.Turner, Illegal Formation, declined. CAR 7 – OAK 23
  • Q3 10:37 TD CAR (10:37) 28-J.Stewart left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – OAK 24
  • Q3 07:53 TD CAR (7:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – OAK 24
  • Q3 01:51 TD CAR (1:51) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 25 – OAK 24
  • Q4 13:34 TD CAR (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 31 – OAK 24
  • Q4 08:42 TD LV (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 88-C.Walford for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 32 – OAK 30
  • Q4 01:47 FG LV (1:47) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. CAR 32 – OAK 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:42) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to LV 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-J.Cash. PENALTY on LV-32-A.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:10) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to CAR 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to LV 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 12 yards (57-J.Cash, 27-R.McClain).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to LV 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to CAR 46 for 9 yards (57-J.Cash).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (6:53) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to LV 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to LV 33 for 5 yards (22-M.Griffin).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:57) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to CAR 24, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:53) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to CAR 9, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:53) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to CAR 16, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 35 for 19 yards (47-J.Cowser). PENALTY on CAR-57-J.Cash, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CAR 16.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:31) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to CAR 24, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to LV 13 for 2 yards (27-R.McClain).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 47 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LV-52-K.Mack at CAR 45. 52-K.Mack to CAR 45 for no gain (79-C.Scott).