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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to CAR 24, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model