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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to CAR 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP